FOREX Daily Updates: USD/SEK Trend Today

FOREX Updates:

The dollar traded unchanged or lower against the other G10 currencies during the European morning Thursday. It depreciated against NZD, SEK, CHF, GBP, JPY and EUR, while it remained near its early morning levels vs AUD, CAD and NOK.

This morning the only economic releases were from the UK. The day started with the Nationwide house price index which accelerated to +1.2% mom in April, beating market estimates of +0.6% mom. A few hours later, the BoE mortgage approvals for March missed estimates but at the same time the UK manufacturing PMI for April exceeded expectations. The index rose to 57.3, beating market expectations of 55.4, while the March number was revised up to 55.8 from 55.3. GBP/USD moved higher on the better-than-expected manufacturing report, breaking above yesterday’s highs of 1.6900. Under normal circumstances such a break could have larger bullish implications targeting the key barrier of 1.7000, but considering the positive expectations for Friday’s NFP number, we may experience a corrective wave before the close of the week. 

WTI continued its decline after a report yesterday showed that crude stockpiles increased by 1.7mn barrels to 399.4mn the week ended April 25, the highest level of stockpiles since the EIA (Energy Information Administration) started reporting weekly data in 1982. After pausing near the 99.35 support barrier, WTI fell below it, thus I would expect the price to meet support at 98.85.

USD/SEK Trend:

USD/SEK moved lower this morning to meet the support at the purple return line and the 6.4765 (S1) barrier. The overall short-term path of the rate remains to the downside, since the pair is trading below the blue downtrend line and below both the moving averages. However, considering positive divergence between both our momentum studies and the price action, and the fact that the RSI exited its oversold zone, I would expect the forthcoming leg to be to the upside. A clear move above the 6.5025 (R1) support could confirm the rebound and may target the next hurdle at 6.5195 (R2). In the larger picture, the 6.4765 (S1) support coincides with the 50% retracement of the 19th March - 21st April uptrend, which makes the aforementioned support even stronger.

• Support: 6.4765 - 6.4385 - 6.3965

• Resistance: 6.5025 - 6.5195 - 6.5530

USD/CAD Trend: FOREX Updates Today

USD/CAD Trend:

A slowdown in Canada’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) may heighten the bearish sentiment surrounding the Canadian dollar as it raises the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) scope to cut the benchmark interest rate later this year.

In light of the protracted recovery, Governor Stephen Poloz may take additional measures to encourage a ‘soft landing,’ and a material shift in the policy outlook may produce fresh highs in the USDCAD as the Federal Reserve remains poised to discuss another $10B taper in March.

The widening trade deficit along with the slack in private sector consumption may generate a dismal GDP report, and a material slowdown in the growth rate may trigger a bearish reaction in the Canadian dollar as it heighten bets for a BoC rate cut.

Nevertheless, the pickup in employment paired with the rise in business investments may help to produce a positive result, and better-than-expected GDP print may spur a short-term pullback in the USDCAD as market participants scale back bets for more monetary easing.

FOREX Updates Today:

The Canadian Dollar saw a bit of strength following the better than expected QoQ GDP print, but the USD/CAD pair remained supported by a key break and hold of former resistance at the July and September highs. The pair closed out the Thanksgiving weekend higher and has since continued to push higher on technical factors as well as fundamentals. Data out of Canada since December has been dismal to say the least, but as of late we have seen a slight correction to the downside. A poor GDP print here may help fuel momentum in the breakout.

FOREX Forecast For Today: 15th Jan

For the euro / dollar and dollar / franc while watching the structure of 9 January as the main reference point. For the GBP / USD price is in the correction zone from falling structure on January 10. The pair dollar / yen formed potential for the top , but expressed initial conditions we do not observe . For the euro / yen and pound / yen pair is similar to painting Dollar / Yen and here we expect a more specific structure formation .

Forecast for January 15 :

For the euro / dollar important levels are 1.3834, 1.3791, 1.3771, 1.3719, 1.3699, 1.3654, 1.3636, 1.3605 and 1.3551. Here the rising structure of 9 January is still relevant for the purposes of the definition. Short-term upward movement forward in the corridor 1.3699-1.3719, break of the latter should be accompanied by a strong upward movement, the Target here- 1.3771, 1.3771 in the hallway- 1.3791 price consolidation. Potential value for the top level of 1.3834 believe at which downward pullback . Short-term downward movement is possible in the corridor 1.3636-1.3605, hence we expect the key reversal up, breakdown of the level 1.3605 will favor the falling structure , in this case the target- 1.3551.