A relatively quiet European economic calendar is headlined by February’s German Industrial Production and March’s Swiss Consumer Price Index figures. The former report is due to the year-on-year output growth rate marginally slowed to 4.7 percent from the 5 percent recorded in February. The latter is set to put the headline inflation rate at -0.1 percent, matching the prior month’s result. Neither release is likely to produce a significant response from price action given their limited implications for traders’ ECB and SNB monetary policy outlook.
The release of the ECB Annual Report may prove of greater note. Traders continue to speculate on the possibility that the deepening disinflation will prompt the central bank to expand monetary stimulus. We’ve argued that Mario Draghi and company are waiting for their Asset Quality Review (AQR) to be well-enough along to reveal the gap in policy transmission that has produced cheap borrowing costs in the interbank space without arresting the slide in lending to the real economy. That will set the stage for crafting an easing effort that repairs or bypasses the hole in the stimulus delivery mechanism. With that in mind, an AQR progress report in the Annual Report may prove market-moving for the Euro.
Operating out Minuette (h1) USDX. Development of the movement in the dollar index in the period from 07 to April 9, 2014 will be determined by the direction of the breakdown range limits : -> ultimate line FSL lift operational scale Minuette (80.57); -> Control line LTL lift operational scale Micro (80.30). Detailing options for the development of motion : -> flet range -> final line FSL lift operational scale Minuette (80.57) <-> Control line LTL lift operational scale Micro (80.30); -> Breakdown resistance levels -> 80.57 (final line FSL lift operational scale Minuette) <-> 80.62 (the lower boundary of the channel 1/2ML Micro) determine the further development of the movement in the channel # USDX half Median Line Fork operational scale Micro (80.62 < -> 80.75 <-> 80.85), and if there will be a breakdown to be the upper limit (80.85) of the channel in conjunction with a warning line UWL50.0 lift operational scale Minuette (80.90), then the upward movement of the index may continue to zone pitchfork equilibrium scale of operation Micro (81.23 <-> 81.45 <-> 81.65); -> If the level of support 80.30 (control line LTL Fork Micro scale of operation) will be relevant further downward movement of the zone # USDX pitchfork equilibrium scale of operation Minuette (80.07 <-> 79.91 <-> 79.76) with a view to achieving the ultimate Shiff Line Minuette (79.46).
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